We are just a few days away from the start of the season, and here are the thoughts of statewide football editor for Virginia Preps.com, Rod Johnson.
When compiling a preseason AAA Top Ten ranking for the state, the first question that you ask yourself is, "who are the best teams in the state?" and the subtext to that question is, "who will win the Division 5 and Division 6 state championship games this season?"
As a guy who majored in history in college, I like to look for patterns in the past to see if that can help predict the future and, in looking at the past five seasons, an interesting (and not surprising) pattern emerged -- teams winning a state championship at the AAA level performed very well the previous season.
By "very well", I don't mean an 8-2, or 9-1 record or something like that, I'm talking playoff experience well. Note that the last ten state champions (five from D5 and five from D6) all have, at worst, played in the regional championship game the season before.
That's good news for fifteen teams who meet that qualification coming into 2009 (Liberty-Bealeton has moved to Division 4) -- Oscar Smith, Varina, Oakton, Meadowbrook, Woodbridge, Ocean Lakes, Chantilly, Phoebus, Osbourn, Dinwiddie, Stone Bridge, GW-Danville, Hanover, Edison, and Lake Taylor.
Now, determining who will rank in the top ten and where they will rank is a simple procedure of talking to sources and arguing amongst the regional writers until we reach a place where everyone is comfortable. Those results can be seen here. Those rankings predict a repeat performance for Oscar Smith in Division 6 and a second state championship win in four years for the Osbourn Eagles who drop to Division 5 this season after losing the D6 title game last season and winning it in 2006.
However, letting the past five years predict the future, we get very different results.
No team has repeated as state champs in the past five years.
Sorry, Oscar Smith and Phoebus, you're fighting against a tough history as the bulls eyes on your backs have been too much for most teams to overcome. Thirteen teams left in contention.
Only one state runner up has returned to the title game to win it the following year (Landstown 2004).
That puts heat on Dinwiddie and Osbourn. Landstown had Percy Harvin on their roster, neither the Generals or Eagles seem to have a five-star talent like that on their roster this season so let's bump them. Eleven teams remaining.
Three teams have won their region, lost in the semis, then come back to win it all (Oscar Smith 2008, Phoebus 2008, and Hampton 2005).
Since it has only happened out of the Eastern Region and no team from the Tidewater area fits that description this season, we are going to eliminate the programs who are in that situation from the other quadrants of the state -- Varina, Oakton and Stone Bridge.
That leaves us with eight teams, all regional runners up from last season: Meadowbrook, Woodbridge Ocean Lakes and Chantilly in Division 6 and GW-Danville, Hanover, Edison and Lake Taylor in Division 5. Good news for those programs -- six of the past ten champions in AAA football lost in the regional championship the season before -- '04 Meadowbrook, '05 Oakton, '06 Osbourn, '06 Phoebus, '07 Westfield and '07 Stone Bridge all completed that run.
Three did it in Division Five and three did it in Division Six. It has happened in all four regions of the state, most often in the Northern where three of the six winners have followed that path including both 2007 champs.
The past two years have brought us regional sweeps with the Northern pulling the trick in 2007 (Westfield and Stone Bridge) and the East matching the feat in 2008 (Oscar Smith and Phoebus). For that to happen again, the tandems would be...
Meadowbrook and Hanover (Central)
Ocean Lakes and Lake Taylor (Eastern)
Chantilly and Edison (Northern)
Woodbridge and GW-Danville (Northwest)
Going back to the top ten rankings for the best teams in the state, VirginiaPreps has ranked both Ocean Lakes and Lake Taylor as top ten teams.
Another Eastern Region sweep? I wouldn't predict it, but recent history is on their side.
When compiling a preseason AAA Top Ten ranking for the state, the first question that you ask yourself is, "who are the best teams in the state?" and the subtext to that question is, "who will win the Division 5 and Division 6 state championship games this season?"
As a guy who majored in history in college, I like to look for patterns in the past to see if that can help predict the future and, in looking at the past five seasons, an interesting (and not surprising) pattern emerged -- teams winning a state championship at the AAA level performed very well the previous season.
By "very well", I don't mean an 8-2, or 9-1 record or something like that, I'm talking playoff experience well. Note that the last ten state champions (five from D5 and five from D6) all have, at worst, played in the regional championship game the season before.
That's good news for fifteen teams who meet that qualification coming into 2009 (Liberty-Bealeton has moved to Division 4) -- Oscar Smith, Varina, Oakton, Meadowbrook, Woodbridge, Ocean Lakes, Chantilly, Phoebus, Osbourn, Dinwiddie, Stone Bridge, GW-Danville, Hanover, Edison, and Lake Taylor.
Now, determining who will rank in the top ten and where they will rank is a simple procedure of talking to sources and arguing amongst the regional writers until we reach a place where everyone is comfortable. Those results can be seen here. Those rankings predict a repeat performance for Oscar Smith in Division 6 and a second state championship win in four years for the Osbourn Eagles who drop to Division 5 this season after losing the D6 title game last season and winning it in 2006.
However, letting the past five years predict the future, we get very different results.
No team has repeated as state champs in the past five years.
Sorry, Oscar Smith and Phoebus, you're fighting against a tough history as the bulls eyes on your backs have been too much for most teams to overcome. Thirteen teams left in contention.
Only one state runner up has returned to the title game to win it the following year (Landstown 2004).
That puts heat on Dinwiddie and Osbourn. Landstown had Percy Harvin on their roster, neither the Generals or Eagles seem to have a five-star talent like that on their roster this season so let's bump them. Eleven teams remaining.
Three teams have won their region, lost in the semis, then come back to win it all (Oscar Smith 2008, Phoebus 2008, and Hampton 2005).
Since it has only happened out of the Eastern Region and no team from the Tidewater area fits that description this season, we are going to eliminate the programs who are in that situation from the other quadrants of the state -- Varina, Oakton and Stone Bridge.
That leaves us with eight teams, all regional runners up from last season: Meadowbrook, Woodbridge Ocean Lakes and Chantilly in Division 6 and GW-Danville, Hanover, Edison and Lake Taylor in Division 5. Good news for those programs -- six of the past ten champions in AAA football lost in the regional championship the season before -- '04 Meadowbrook, '05 Oakton, '06 Osbourn, '06 Phoebus, '07 Westfield and '07 Stone Bridge all completed that run.
Three did it in Division Five and three did it in Division Six. It has happened in all four regions of the state, most often in the Northern where three of the six winners have followed that path including both 2007 champs.
The past two years have brought us regional sweeps with the Northern pulling the trick in 2007 (Westfield and Stone Bridge) and the East matching the feat in 2008 (Oscar Smith and Phoebus). For that to happen again, the tandems would be...
Meadowbrook and Hanover (Central)
Ocean Lakes and Lake Taylor (Eastern)
Chantilly and Edison (Northern)
Woodbridge and GW-Danville (Northwest)
Going back to the top ten rankings for the best teams in the state, VirginiaPreps has ranked both Ocean Lakes and Lake Taylor as top ten teams.
Another Eastern Region sweep? I wouldn't predict it, but recent history is on their side.
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